Nadine: Hurricane Center Sees 50 Percent Cyclone Formation Chance by Sunday

A storm brewing in the Caribbean might be about to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nadine.
The low-pressure zone has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone—defined as a tropical depression or stronger—in the coming 48 hours. If this storm reaches tropical storm strength, it will be officially named Tropical Storm Nadine, as Nadine is next after Hurricane Milton on the list of the 2024 hurricane season storm names.
If this storm doesn’t reach tropical storm strength, the next storm to hit that level will be named Nadine.
“Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in a forecast. “Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or two.”
A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speeds of 38 mph or less, while a tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with winds of between 39 and 73 mph. Once winds reach 74 mph or higher, the storm is classified as a hurricane.
The intensification of a storm from a low-pressure area into a hurricane is aided by high sea surface temperatures, as warm water provides the necessary heat and moisture to fuel the storm, as well as low wind shear. High wind shear can tear the storm apart by disrupting its convection patterns and organization.
Mathew Barlow, a professor of environmental, earth and atmospheric sciences at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, told Newsweek: “In general, hurricane development requires the ocean surface to be warm and the atmosphere to have favorable conditions for heavy rain near the storm center, including ample moisture, unstable conditions and not too much difference in wind speed between the middle and top of the storm, which can pull it apart.”
This potential storm in the Caribbean is situated off the coast of Honduras and is expected to move westward toward Belize and Guatemala.
The NHC said: “A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.”
In the mid-Atlantic, there is another low-pressure zone with a small chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone. This storm was originally thought to have a high potential of becoming Tropical Storm Nadine, but it now has only a 10 percent chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength in the next 48 hours and in seven days.
The NHC said: “A poorly defined trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern Leeward Islands northward for a couple hundred miles over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near or just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday,” the NHC said.
“By late this weekend, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds,” it added.
If either of these nascent storms were to hit Florida, which is very unlikely at this point given their forecast paths and strengths, it could exacerbate the damage done by the rapid succession of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
“Multiple storms hitting in a short period of time have a large pile-on effect, as it gets progressively harder to prepare for and recover from each event as resources and infrastructure become more and more strained and overwhelmed,” Barlow explained.
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about tropical storms? Let us know via [email protected].